Torture

Let’s torture the numbers one more time. What was the range of multiples for horses with a fast work at the Timonium sale? All the horse that worked 10.1 and sold:

1. 18 horses sold for more than 10x their 2020 stud fee
2. 5 sold for 8x to 9.9x
3. 5 sold for 6x to 7.9x
4. 8 sold for 4x to 5.9x
5. 6 sold for 2x to 3.9x
6. 5 sold for 1x to 1.9x
7. 3 sold for less than 1x (including Pewter Malibu Moon)

You could describe this distribution as have a median of about 8x, but while statistically accurate you can do better.

Really about 35% of the horses sold for a price that had little to do with their stud fee. These were the great looking horses that inspired bidding wars where “value” was not the primary consideration.

If you exclude these horses, it is more descriptive to say that for the fast works:

The median is about 5x, but again the distribution has very big tails (kurtosis, for those who took too many statistics course, as I did)

Now let’s look at the distribution for the 10.2’s

1. 12 greater than 10x
2. 4 sold for 8x to 9.9x
3. 5 sold for 6x to 7.9x
4. 11 sold for 4x to 5.9x
5. 35 sold for 2x to 3.9x
6. 6 sold for 1x to 1.9x
7. 5 sold for less than 1x

You could say the median was 4x

or better is 15% sold for premium prices, and the median for the vast majority was 3x

xxxxxx

very roughly:

5x – 6x. for a fast work, with significant outliers

3 – 3.5x for an above average to average work, with some outliers

1.5x – 2x. for below average to average work