Fat Tails

Let’s spend a little time looking at the Pewter Stable offer. Only 65 of about 303 horses sold, worked 10.1 or faster (10 went 10.0). At first glance it seems that buying a Malibu Moon at less that 1x the stud fee could only be accomplished only at gunpoint. But before jumping to that conclusion, let’s look at the distribution of all the horse that worked 10.1 at Timonium.

1. 7 were not sold
2. 18 sold for $65,000 or less
3. 11 sold $66,000 to $119,000
4. 10 sold for $120,000 to $249,000
5. 9 sold for $250,000 or more

That is not a “normal” distribution, it is in fact quite flat, with a fatter tail at the bottom.

You can torture these number many different ways. Of course the Pewter deal is much better when you look at multiples of stud fees. But is that really the best way to look at things? There is no easy answer.

The list of folks that paid less than $65,000 or less for a 10.1 work is quite distinguished, it includes:

1. West Point
2. Eclipse (twice)
3. Bradley Thoroughbreds
4. Repole Stables
5. Bob Hess
6. Mike Maker
7. several well known bloodstock agents

The horse that Pewter bought is list as consigned by King’s Equine as agent for Spendthrift Farm (which is where Malibu Moon stands). Is this mare owned by Spendthrift Farms? If it is the cost to them is not really $60,000, it is in fact $0. The horse was not sold as a yearling. Maybe someone did not pay there stud fee and Spendthrift “repoed” the mare.

There are still many parts of this game I do not understand.

The cross of sons of AP Indy with mares sired by the sons of Danehill is reported by TrueNicks as a D.

The horse is unusually bred. The dam sire is Flying Spur, who won $2,000,000 racing in Australia, and is a son of Danehill. What is more unusual is that the mare (Prairy Kat) is the product of second cousins having children. The same mare (Grand Luxe) is the second dam of Flying Spur, and is also the second dam of Categorical ( the mom of Prairy Kat). It is easier to go to PedigreeQuery.com and type in Prairy Kat.

This would be illegal in 25 states for humans, but legal in the rest. The science says this is not a problem in humans, but some traditions die hard. I have no idea what the implication is in horses.

Mix all that together and you get a pretty big mess, but I think the Pewter offer still deserves consideration.