Offers

The first offer to consider is the one from West Point. Hip #160 is a Vancouver colt that worked 10.2. He was my 5th favorite horse when I went through the Timonium catalog the first time, and before his work. I like the “concept” or this horse, but would I actually invest in it. WP paid a full price of 7x the stud fee. That is in my judgement a full price for a 10.2 work. This horse raises may issues that are interesting to consider.

1. How do you evaluate a Australian sire? We are all trying to find a cheaper Medaglia de Oro, but is this the guy? He only ran 4 sprint races in his brief career. His pedigree suggest he could have gone longer, but is he just a sprinter? WP says this is a “two-turn” horse by his looks. Has Vancouver been successful with his Australian offspring? It is hard for me to judge, I do not know enough about Australian racing. I have a feeling that Vancouver could be a success, but can I really invest on that basis. In reality I need to know each new sire cold, not just have general feeling about them.
2. I would like to have a dam that was a better race horse. I love the Pulpit/AP Indy pedigree, but Past Twilight ran one good race at 7f breaking her maiden at Gulfstream, but never ran a good race again and retired after 14 tries. I would prefer a decent allowance horse, but she was not that.
3. The dam has produced one well above average horse in 5 tries. Again I would call that OK, but not great.
4. The second dam is not much to talk about, but the family under the 3rd dam is well above average. Is this important at all, or it just fluff?. Someday I hope to know that answer to that question.

Mixing this all together I guess I could forgive the mare’s faults if I really believed Vancouver is the next great thing. I know you pay a high price for certainty, which makes a Vancouver colt a very interesting idea.

This is not a beginners horse. This is a tough call even for an experienced investor. The horse looks beautiful, but most Medaglia de Oro’s do, that is why they cost so much. This colt could well haunt me for the rest of my career. Over 30 years ago I walked into a video store that was the first to use a computerized checkout system. The funny thing is that one store was part of a small public company that had been in the oil service business, but was switching it business to video stores. You guessed it, that one store became the Blockbuster chain and the stock went up 400x what it was the first night I walked in that store.

I have missed the big one before, and could very well miss it again.

The 2nd WP horse is an Elusive Quality that is a little too much a run early sprinter for me, but they got a great price because nobody is that excited about the sire. He could well haunt me at Saratoga this summer.

The 3rd horse a Square Eddie which is well out of my area of expertise, but I will have to learn more about Cal-bred sires.

West Point deserves credit for making 3 interesting choices. None of these are easy stories, and that is good not bad. I will be better prepared next year.

West Point also deserves extra credit for a very clear and detailed presentation of each horse, including nick ratings, heart scores, and stride evaluations.

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The Eclipse offers present a whole different set of issues. The first horse is by Dominus a sire that I am not prepared to evaluate. A quick look shows he might be an interesting value, but I need to learn much more. I was not prepared for his one.

I was prepared for the 2nd horse, a filly by Mshawish. This was one of the first year sires I wanted to invest in. Another son of Medaglia de Oro, that could run on turf or dirt. The problem here is the mare is horrible. She ran 2 miserable races and was retired, and this is her first foal. The breeding is above average, and the second dam was a great runner. I have tried to avoid first foals, but I am not sure that is a sound idea.

I like uncertainty, but this is taking it too far. Why is Eclipse even messing around with these cheaper horses? It is interesting to note they found no value in the more expensive horses. This could be another horse that will haunts me. It is certainly in an easy price range, and I like the sire. The work was a quick 10.1. You cannot argue they paid too much.

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The Pewter Stable horse is fascinating. They bought a Malibu Moon filly with a great work and a good family for less 1x the stud fee. This purchase would make much more sense if it were $250,000 or even $150,000, but why $50,000. It is also interesting to note the horse still shows as not sold of the Fasig-Tipton websire

This horse is a perfect example of TGTBT. (To Good To Be True), or maybe it is just a great value. It will be interesting to see how fast this horse sells out. I will call and talk to the Pewter folks about her next week, but for now it is a riddle wrapped inside a puzzle.