Maybe ?

As the Timonium sale is only 2 hours from liftoff, deep second guesses have started. If this were real money, it would be quite a problem. That is why I am practicing with “funny money”. Right now the I have talked myself out of several horses, and the plan is to wait for #367 the Exaggerator filly with a solid 10.2, despite a distance pedigree, and a 5/9 birthday. Can I get her for under $100,000? I think so.

But maybe:

  1. #5 is a Frosted colt with a average/slow 10.3. His mom is a Pleasant Tap slow developer that did not win until she was 4, but then won the G2 Vagrancy Handicap. Isn’t tis exactly the horse I should be looking for? A Frosted out a graded stales winner for 3x, what could be better? The pinhooker paid $160,000 as a yearling, but now maybe he has to sell for less. Could I pay $120,000 and get exactly what I want?
  2. Rather than take a chance with slow works, why not see if #11, #26, or #32 are available at under $120,000. They all worked 10.1 and are from unpopular sires Orb, Palace Malice, and Carpe Diem.
  3. The horse I really like is #63, but again the slow work of 10.3. This is the same breeding as Mshawish, from a mare that has produced 3 winners of over $200,000. Maybe this one could sell for less than $50,000.
  4. The Nyquist colt at #68 might also slip through the cracks. The breeding might suggest the 10.2 work is forgivable.

Published by Gregg Jahnke

I was a professional investor for over 30 years. Now I spend my time trying to pick horses rather than stocks.

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