95% of the times I mention speed figures in this blog they will the numbers reported in Equibase, because that is a free database. Beyer figures are more accurate, but costly to obtain.
Beyer figures are better because they are adjusted by real breathing people, Equibase is only done by computer. Go to any big dollar handicapping tournament and you will find 75% using the Daily Racing Form (Beyer), 20% Ragozin, Thorograph, or other, and maybe 5% what we call the program number. That was true 20 years ago and today.
I think in Beyer terms, but what is the proper adjustment for Equibase numbers?
I calculated the differences for about 30 horses from a recent DRF. For our purposes I will mentally use the following, but continue to use the Equibase numbers as reported:
In the East and Midwest Equibase is 10-12 points too high, turf or dirt
In Southern California Equibase is 15-17 points too high, turf or dirt
This is only for Beyers above 80, the difference would be greater for cheaper horses because Beyer number decline faster toward 0.
Equibase number also have a greater degree of variability, Beyers are “smoother”. Be very careful no to grab just one “top” Equibase number that in higher than the rest. Equibase will have more variability on off tracks, and soft turf.
This is a complex subject. I would pay DRF $10 (for a report on the dam) if I were buying 10% of a $200,000 horse, but not for for 2% of a $50,000 horse.
For Equibase I generally use:
- 110+ is graded stakes winning time
- 100-105+ is a solid allowance horse
- 90-95+ is a solid MSW horse
- 80-85+ is a higher $ Maiden Claimer ($40,000)
- 70-75+ is a lower level MC ($20,000)
Fillies are 5- 8 points lower, as are state breds
These are for better tracks, it might be 10 points lower an Indiana Downs, Lone Star, etc.
Reasonable people can disagree about these differences, but I think my estimates are close.
In most cases the mental adjustment is good enough.
Buying A Race Horse 