Beginner’s Luck?

I got the TrueNicks report for all the horses I bought imaginarily for over $30,000 at the Ocala sale..

The rough method is comparing the percentage of stakes winners from all matings of your sire with all the daughters of that broodmare sire, compared to the general population for your sire and that broodmare sire.

For example Frosted (the one I bought is by a Maria’s Mon mare) is a new sire so they go back to all the sons of Tapit, and find the ones bred to daughters of Maria’s Mon, and calculate percentage of stakes winners. They then compare that to the percentage of stakes winners of Tapit sons with all other daughters, and they also compare the percentage of stakes winners by all Maria’s Mon mares when bred to sons of Tapit with the percentage of stakes winners when Maria’s Mon mare are bred with all other sires.

You half to think about all that for a while, but it eventually makes sense. Is stakes winners the best measure? Are the sample sizes large enough?

Here are results:

1. Violence – $125 – B
2. Maclean’s Music – $110 – B
3. Bayern – $100 – A++
4. Frosted – $65 – A
5. Point of Entry $65 – A+
6. Dialed In – $47 – A
7. Macleans Music – $47 – B
8. Ironicus – $47 – C
9. Carpe Diem – $40 – C
10. Summer Front – $35 – A

In dollar terms this is 90% of what I bought.

TrueNicks reports that only 13% of horses are rated A or better, and just 30% are B, but that is of the total population. I wonder what the distribution is for the Ocala sale? It seems the people “building” these horses must pay some attention to “nicks”

Or perhaps it is all statistical mumbo jumbo that means almost nothing.