Belmont Recap

Two months ago I would have left the Lone Star simulcast pavilion moaning about short price favorites in short field stakes races. Today I stayed home to look through the Ocala catalog, and only lost $60 on my pick 3 stab. I would have lost much more trying to beat the other short price horses. Let’s call it a good day.

Congratulations to the Sackatoga guys. It is important to understand what they did right when they bought Tiz the Law at the August 2018 NY bred yearling sales.

1. they went to the NY bred sale, not the fancy show a few days earlier
2. they bought a first crop sire, who did not win as a 2-yr old, and ran his best race at 4 years old (the Donn Handicap) at 1 1/8 miles
3. the Tiznow mare did not win until July of her 3-yr old season, the mare was solid (running a 105), but was claimed for $50,000 and really improved when she was 4 years old. The 2nd dam was more stamina by Go for Gin.
4. They paid 4.4 x the stud fee at the time ($25,000), the median price at the sale was $76,000. I would guess the multiple they paid was average at best. 60 horses sold for more, only 30 sold for less that night.
5. Only two other Constitutions sold (one for $210,000 and another for $20,000), it was not a popular sire at the time
6. The mare had produced 2 winners from 3 foals, one was solid ($170,000 in Indiana) the other inconsequential ($14,000)

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Gambling was a loss of $62.50. I could have paid an extra $12.50 to add Tiz the Law to my pick 3. But the payoff was a dramatically underlayed $67. A better bet would have been a $3 late double 5×5 or $75 which would have paid $315. If Tiz the Law had lost the pick 3 would have been fantastic.