Now I have to handicap the Belmont from the perspective of a horse buyer. It is ok to cheer for Tiz the Law. The Sackatoga guys only paid $110,000 as a yearling in the Saratoga sale. This was really before Constitution got hot as a sire, so would call this a mid-range buy. The dam was quite a race horse so, you could even call this a good value purchase. I will bet against him tomorrow because the one-turn 1 1/8 is difficult for any horse to navigate. Strange things happen when any horse goes from two turns, to a long straightaway. If this were two turns ad Aqueduct, he would be solid choice. Now anything can happen, but who can beat him?
As a value buyer I have to cheer for Sole Volante. He was bought for just $20,000 in the April 2019 Ocala training sale. He worked a slow 10.2 and 3 other Karakontie’s sold for more. Who says there is no value at the Ocala sale? The dam was out of Kingmambo, a slow developer, and British bred 2nd dam. Sole Volante is exactly the type of horse I have talking about. You could easily use this horse as a blueprint. Somewhat obscure sire, a below average work, and a female family that is not precocious, mix it all together and you get the second choice in the Belmont Stakes for $20,000.
Maybe I am not as crazy as I think I am.
That said, I will not be betting of him. I do not believe in a horse runnings back in 10 days. I would not run a $8,000 claimer back i 10 days. I know the old school guys think this is alright, I disagree. I will be cheering, not betting.
I guess I will have to bet on the Florida bred, Tap it To Win. Tapit, out of a Meaglia do Oro mare is the best pedigree to get 1 1/8 by far. Can he he survive if the cheap speed pushes him, I hope so. But just in case I will hedge with a few of the closers, Pneumatic, Modernist, and even Max Player.
4 of the 10 entrants sent through the sales ring, 3 sold as yearlings. Todd’s Dr. Post sold for $400,000.
I think Tiz the Law is the wrong horse. I still have Ete Indien to win the Haskell and the Derby, or maybe a complete outsider. I do not love the pick-5 ending in the Belmont, maybe the pick 3 starting with the Belmont is best. I love the longshots 4, 5, and 6 in the last race, and maybe someone can beat Todd/Chad in the second leg make it.
1, 2, 3, 4, 10 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 / 2, 4. 5, 6, 10 = $63 for $.50
Buying A Race Horse 