The Road Less Traveled By

Let me explain the slightly (or maybe very) controversial method I used to select my portfolio of horses.

Step 1 was to avoid all the “over-hyped” sires based on recent results. That means staying away from Constitution, Honor Code, American Pharoah, Nyquist, California Chrome, and others.

I also avoid what I consider sprint oriented, or precocious sires – Uncle Mo, Speightstown, Kantharos and many more.

These are often subjective decisions based on handicapping almost every weekend for over 20 years.

Step 2 is to avoid the expensive sires with stud fees of $40,000 or more.

Step 3 is to come up with a list of sires I think I have a more favorable opinion of compared to the general consensus. Measuring that consensus is subjective.

Step 4 is the most controversial. I look for horses with AVERAGE workouts, that I would EXPECT to have BELOW AVERAGE workouts based on their pedigree.

For over twenty years I have consistently made good bets on young horses that have pedigrees that indicate they will not run fast until the middle of their 3-year old season, or even later. Mike Helm had an excellent list of “win later” sires in his outstanding book on pedigree handicapping, and I have used this method ever since.

I do not yet understand “nicks” and “out-crosses”, but I can look at a pedigree and predict which horse is less likely to work 10.1 in June of their two year old career.

In this Ocala sale 20% of horses worked 9.4 or 10.0, 30% worked 10.1, and 50% worked 10.2 or slower.

Give me a Lemon Drop Kid colt out of a Pleasant Tap mare, that was born on May 1st, and worked 10.1, and I want to think about buying that horse. I would have EXPECTED a work of 10.2 or even 10.3.

I believe most owners want a horse with a fast work that has a precocious pedigree. I want an average work with a “win later” pedigree.

Most importantly I do not want to pay more that 3x to 4x the stud fee for my average work and questionable pedigree. I want to be a “value buyer”, but in some cases i will extend this limit.

For over 30 years I have been a professional investor buying stocks that sell at a low multiples of book value. Most of my fellow investment professionals consider this method “crazy”. I am sure many horse buyers will consider my methodology “crazy”. Welcome to my world.

As the poet Robert Frost said, “I took the road traveled by, and that has made all the difference”