12 Colts to Win the 2021 Derby, or at Least an Allowance Race at Turfway

I would love to buy each of these colts at 5x their stud fee, but I would certainly pay 10x. For the top 5 I might even go 20x.

There were 14 works of 9.4 and 100 10.0, there were also 34 works of 20.4 or faster. That is 148 horses that had fast works (1315 total, but only 800 worked). Last year 128 horses sold for $200,000 or more at this sale.

The basic theme is second tier sires, with solid route running mares, and an above average workout.

1. #762 – Sky Mesa by Distorted Humor (2nd dam by Dynaformer). I did not start out looking for Sky Mesa’s, but found an excellent TDN article about “value sires”. Sky Mesa is the grandson of AP Indy through Pulpit. I found an solid 21.1 work, for a May foal. Mom ran a 102 speed figures at 1 1/2 mile for Tom Proctor in a small stakes race at Keenland. Sky Mesa is a $15,000 fee. I also love the other 5 horses consigned by Coastal Equine, a pinhooker. Sold for $19,000 as a yearling. Named Too Legit
2. # 589 – Bodemiester by Kitten’s Joy (2nd dam by Woodman). Bodemeister is another “value sire”, who has been shipped to Turkey. That should not excite many buyers. Bodemiester is the son of Empire Maker, and grandson of Unbridled. He had a very solid 21 flat work. Mom ran a 95 speed fig for Wayne Catalano at 1 and 1/16 at Arlington. The second dam produced 3 graded stakes winners. Dam was bred to Uncle Mo her first year. Bodemiester fee was $15,000
3. #348 – Creative Cause by Grand Lodge. Creative Cause (a son of Giant’s Causeway, Grand Lodge won several 1 1/2 Irish G1’s) sired Pavel out an unraced Maria’s Mon mare. The work was a solid 21.1. Mom of 348 was a small time winner is Australia, but was bred for much better. She produced a solid winner with Exchange Rate. The second dam was a G2 winner at a distance, and produced a G2 winner. Creative Cause stands for $15,000. Sold for $35,000 as a yearling. Named Creative Boys
4. #1205 – Bayern by Jeblar. Everyone is down on Bayern’s, but I will give him another chance. The work was a very quick 20.4 . Mom was a solid long distance Tampa and Delaware allowance horse (ran 85’s). She producer a Multiple graded winner Jeranimo by Congaree. Bayern stands for $15,000. Sold for $75,000 as a yearling.
5. #1155 – Carpe Diem by Street Cry. I am a believer in the Carpe Diem story . He was a great looking $1,000,000 yearling whose career was cut short by injury. Mom ran solid 85″s at Laural. She produced a solid winner by Bernardini.. The second dam is by His Majesty. The work was a solid 21. April foal. Sold as a weanling for $220,000. This one might be too expensive. The backup might be 937 the mare ran a 101 speed figure in her short career. From a Seeking the Gold son. Sold for $30,000 as a yearling. Or maybe 1313 at the end
6. #340 – Social Inclusion by Lemon Drop Kid. Social Inclusion is a little known son of Pioneerof the Nile. He set a track record at Gulfstream, and was 3rd in the Preakness. He stand for$5,000 in Pennslyvania. The dam was unraced, but her full sister was a stakes winner in Canada. The alternative is paying $500,000 for an American Pharoah colt. The work was a reasonable 21.2 April foal.
7. #359 – Wicked Strong by Medaglia de Oro. Wicked Strong won the Jim Dandy, and almost won the Travers. The mare won in England and was stakes placed in the U.S. She ran 96 speed figures 6 times. She produced 2 solid winners. Wicked Strong stands for $6,000. The work was an average 10.2. Consigned by the same woman as my #1 horse. Foaled in late April. Sold for $30,000 as a weanling
8. #389 – Dialed In by Unbridled Song. Dialed In was Zito’s last good horse, winner of the Florida Derby. Dialed In is another “value sire” that is getting better mares. His stud fee was recently doubled to $20,000 because his yearling were selling so well. The mare ran a solid 85 speed figure and has produced a G2 placed runner at 1 1/8.
9. #529 – Noble Mission by Smart Strike. The sire of Code of Honor is by Galileo and Sadler’s Wells. The dam set a NCR at Belmont for 1 1/4 on the turf. The second dam is G2 placed. The work was an ok 10.2. Stud fee is $20,000. Sold for $20,000 as a yearling.
10. #1276 – Tonalist by Exchange Rate. Mare ran a 107 finishing second in the G2 Indiana Derby. Produced two solid winners. Work was a solid 21.1. Foaled May 19th. Sold for $115,000 as a yearling.
11. #351 – We Miss Artie- Stop laughing, We Miss Artie was a solid horse (Artie Schiller by a Fu Peg Mare) that Pletcher pushed too fast for Mr. Ramsey. This large and beautiful colt worked a solid 21.1. An April foal, We Miss Artie stands for $5,000.
12. #259 – Not This Time by Songandaprayer. There were 6 Not This Time’s with fast works, but I took and average work of 21.3. The mare ran 104 speed figures at Hollywood and produced a $150,000 winner. The second dam was a G2 winner. at 1 1/16. Sold for $100,000 as a yearling.